CategoryGermany

Weimar, Hitler, and 2016


A factually accurate report that I welcome, for I have studied not only law and international relations, but also took a special course about the Resistance Movements Against Hitler during WW2.

I have never met one single person, except the teacher of that course,  who could explain the phenomenon Hitler to me, including my own family. So I researched for many years until I found tidbits of truth that I voiced here and there, always meeting fierce resistance, especially from Germans.

Either people are fascinated by his rhetoric or they block off completely saying it was a ‘German’ problem (which it was not at all), or they blame the Weimar Republic—which is not entirely wrong but also not entirely right. Of course, Hitler profited of the political mistakes that this socialist regime committed, but that cannot explain all of his evil success in Europe and the World at large.

Let me get to the point quickly for I do not intend to waste your precious time. What you need to understand now is that you got a coalition in place, Turkey and Russia, whose goals are unworthy enough to be listed as destroying democracy as we know it. It is sold to you right now as a trade alliance but that is just the beginning. It will be a full blown political and military alliance that will oppose Nato—yes, despite the fact that Turkey is a member of Nato. But see only what will happen over the next months. I predict that by the end of this year, Turkey has got a clear distance to Nato and Nato has got a clear distance to Turkey.

Already by the news today, Nato, under American command, is shifting nukes from shelters in Turkey to Romania, and this is only a tiny detail of what could be called the ‘new strategy.’ Trust has been rendered very thin by Turkey’s absolutist claims and the purge of the country after the coup.

The mix we get in the media is honestly confusing. What is clear is that Turkey is in a state of ongoing chaos where separatist movements plan and execute deadly attacks on police and military forces, while most of the time unfortunately civilians are the victims.

Here are my predictions:

  1. The Turkey-Russia Alliance will be a fortress against the West, based on a coalition of extremism, also religious extremism (Islam and Orthodoxy) against the liberal-minded Roman Catholic Church that is the base layer of Western democracy.
  2. The Turkey-Russia Alliance will be fueled by extremist Islamic movements and there will be a pseudo-war against ISIS for in truth, both Turkey and Russia are going to use these extremist forces for their profit (not officially so, of course).
  3. The Turkey-Russia Alliance will fuel resentment against the West, Western values, and Western culture, increasingly so, including democratic values, and both countries will show on a daily level how they envisage humanity to be guided by propaganda—just as Hitler did.
  4. Extremist and populist movements in Europe will be fascinated by these strong ideological statements and try to implement their strategies in their anti-EU political statements. We will face a lot of support for totally irrational and totally separatist movements in Europe, from 2017, and and even now emerging.
  5. WW3 will start in 2017 with either an invasion of Ukraine or Crimea by Russia, else a false flag operation, and a totally debilitating response of the United States, a country that all over recent history has shown to not understand the dynamics in Europe, nor in the Middle East.

Where are Trump’s Trumps?

Where is the Great Dictator now, after having put dirt on all and everybody, after having tweeted everybody to hell, after having told Europe it’s in a mess with crime all over and a chaos, after having told Mexico to prepare for a big wall to look at and the Pope that a Trump doesn’t take criticism even from the highest religious authority, after having threatened Clinton and many others with law suits?

Where is the Great Poker Player now, and where are his trumps? He was always so brilliant in business and now needs to compliment Vladimir Putin to be a ‘great leader’ to gain some respect from abroad?

Where is the Great Military Leader now who said that ISIS is a problem for school boys for ‘I will bomb the hell out of them and that will solve the problem once for all.’

Where is the Great Peace Maker who admittedly is a great negotiator in business deals, and who recently voiced ‘why should we refrain from using nukes’ to make an end to ISIS? I can’t see the reason.’

Where is the Great Rhetoric who tells Obama that he has no charisma while Obama according to thousands of experts in public speaking around the world has been said to be one of the most gifted public speakers in all of human history? And this brilliance is impossible without having charisma! (I am sure that even Hillary Clinton will agree with this statement).

Where is the Great Statesman who wants to lead America into new peace and prosperity, and not just that, into ‘Making America Great Again?’ Who can say that America is *not* great now? And why? What about seeing this simply as ‘fabricated truth’ or ‘fabricated consent’ in the sense this term was coined by Noam Chomsky?

Where is the Great Winner who said in all his books ‘never give up’ and now begins to see reality, saying, he can ‘after all’ lose the campaign without tears, going back to his ‘good life’ with a ‘good family’ and play ‘good golf’ after such an after all very stressful outpost of his usual business activity.

Ever thought, Mr. Trump, that your predictable defeat in the national elections will have some serious repercussions upon your business?

Psychological Warfare

For political observers, it is obvious that what is underlying, not what is apparent, is what moves states into certain actions, and avoid certain other actions. In other words, when you see the world only under the political lupe, you see it wrongly.

States, as human beings, are motivated by hidden agendas, by underlying motives, and by psychological reasons.

The obvious is in stark conflict with the rational mind when we see Putin and Erdogan heading into an unprecedented, while still premature, brotherhood. And while the political spectrum seems to be in conflict with this ‘defense solution,’ this is only so on the surface of things.

Turkey belongs to Nato and thus would have to be considered as an ‘enemy’ by Russia. The incident of downing a Russian warplane by the Turkish air force in 2015 gave another apparent reason that this had to be so. But it was not so. This ‘conflict’ was simply the confrontation of two thick-headed statesmen but it had no implications for the long term relationship between the two countries.

So what? Why are the two military giants approaching each other again in a most friendly manner and coordinate their military strategies?

The reasons are not political, or only randomly political, for they are mainly psychological. Both countries have hidden ethnic cleasing agendas the West rightly opposes to, both countries have modern militaries and are basically aggressive-minded in their international policies, both countries favor a strong-man leadership backed by ruthless police surveillance and a more or less total crackdown on free media. Thus both nations foster dictatorial regimes that are set to eat up more and more segments of their populations by large-scale state propaganda.

Thus, both nations are basically anti-democratic in their base setup and this will get worse over time, as a matter of internal dynamics in every dictatorial and freedom-hostile regime. But this is precisely what unites them in a front now, which could be called a ‘red front’ — and attentive readers may well remember the clear predictions by Nostradamus who said the great and final Armageddon—also called WW3— would start with an alliance between Turkey and Russia, based upon orthodox religions and against Roman Catholicism as practiced by the freedom-loving West.

It would be naive to believe that this amalgam of power, ruthless state doctrine, anti-democracy and fascism would not attract extremist forces and mercenaries on their side. That means that these regimes will be increasingly sympathetic to extremist forces in the Middle East, in Russia, and in Turkey, and wherever else in the world. This is simply so, as a matter of natural law, as like attracts like.

In other words and to summarize, we are presently in a phase of psychological warfare where the pacts or blocks are forming and evolving that later will represent the opponents in real war. Besides, military and political history clearly shows that during phases of fascist supremacy and the oppression of free press, together with endless ‘crackdowns’ on opponents (or imagined opponents), nations split up and become politically polarized, which means that strong and sometimes deadly opposition forces are set into place and fueled by hatred and contradiction, and ultimately, by feelings of humiliation!

The result of that process is civil war, and this is the reason why wars all through human history seldom are clean ring fights, for civil wars are often cross-border and make for chaotic—and often temporary—alliances that further disrupt the already freakish trust-building between superpowers.

China, which is a country that still today has not implemented the rule of law and that persecutes freedom-affirming local and foreign journalists, is likely to be on the line of this psychological setup that can be summarized as the putting on stage of new state oligarchies that coordinate their efforts on a less than official level in order to gain worldpower, even if this power then has to be shared among three parties.

But where is the United States in this picture, where is Europe, where is Japan? These are the burning questions that I leave to your own psychological and political IQ to answer. When you know you have asked the right questions, you know you will get the right answers.

Let me only mention one tiny detail in a very complex picture. Now Europe is not only dependent on Russian gas, it is also dependent on Turkish gas. See that on a timeline into the future, and where this dependency possibly can lead to.

Or take the recent selling out of Europe by Angela Merkel’s 6 billion dollar deal with Turkey that was equally, again psychologically speaking, a humiliation for freedom-loving Europe as Amnesty International and many international lawyers have condemned this pact as anti-human rights. That it won’t work out anyway, nobody really cares, the refugees are in the same mess as before, the deal will go overboard, and with it, many newly arriving refugees, as the numbers are rising against all predictions to the contrary. And Angela Merkel has less chances to be re-elected, thereby creating a political gap that will be filled with a center-right coalition, probably headed by Frauke Petry, the head of the new right-wing populist party ‘Alternative for Germany.’

There is real danger that this ‘alternative’ will be the last one for Germany for in state controlled regimes there are notoriously no alternatives and in populist psychology there is always only ‘one solution.’ And because life is infinitely complex, this kind of political psychology must lead to anti-life ideologies and lots of violence and chaos.

Refugee Crisis Worse than Ever

This is a prototypical example how we are served fake solutions by our so-called politicians who have become administrators of problems, instead of being problem-solvers. The refugee crisis is worse than ever, only half a page to read to know all the truth which in this case is in the numbers:

http://bit.ly/2b7BZok

Populism in Germany

One doesn’t need to be of Einsteinian intelligence to connect the dots here. All those who still believe I was a negative thinker will think twice. The Alternative for Germany (AFD) has now gained 20% while only 5% are needed to enter the Bundestag as a political party. While these state elections are only signposts for the eventual federal elections, the three states that were involved are representative.

http://www.thelocal.de/20160313/merkel-gets-the-blame-as-germany-faces-up-to-rise-of-populists

This means that Merkel can’t continue her politics because the SPD is going to be so weak and unimportant that the only constructive solution would be a right-wing coalition CDU-AFD.

Then, connect the dots with Jihadists in Germany according to this well-researched article from the Gateson Institute:

http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7609/germany-islamic-state

This is an explosive mix, a recipe for civil war, for as I have predicted it since more than 20 years, it’s right-wing fascism, also called populism as an euphemism that will get us into WW3, and no other problem. The refugee crisis is only the catalyzer and therefore I believe that Merkel cannot be blamed for this landslide into fascism. First of all it’s not a Germany-only phenomenon. See only the scary rise of antisemitism in France and the right-wing dictatorial touch all over the Balkan states including Turkey.

Then consider the fact that in the United States, too, the general tone during the election campaign becomes more and more populist and one-sided, narrow-minded and provincial, and last not least see how weapon sales are rising virtually every month, fostered by growing fears of multiple threats and declining trust between nations linked by diplomatic ties.

Everyone who in this situation sees happy times ahead or business as usual must be struck with blindness or is an eternal Peter Pan. And to end this post with a positive note, Merkel’s sense of realities can still be very useful in Germany, especially now, for she might be able to use her power to dampen the right-wing zeal of the AFD once a coalition with the CDU is reached. I wish her all the best for this goal, while I still believe that she sold Europe out to Turkey in an unprecedented way and this will have negative repercussions for her career.

An Alternative Solution

I would have spent the money on Greece and make sure people don’t drown by using the Nato deployment but I would have let them come to Greece and spent the money there. After all, it’s spent then on a democratic country and a EU member, not an outsider. This deal was clearly favorable for Turkey with the prospect of passport-free travel from June 2016 and new discussions about EU membership. But they cannot be made a member according to EU law as long as they practice torture.

And when you see that they first wanted only 3 bn euros and when they raised the price tag to 6 bn, Merkel immediately agreed. Only politicians can do such a thing, a business man like Trump would never agree with such a bargain: and for good reasons. In my view Europe has lost face with this deal and this is first of all the doing of Merkel.

I have lost my own faith in her through this while I was truly admiring her before. But that was too much. Turkey is a country that can’t be trusted, only scan through their history, including the Armenian genocide. Turkey is and was a violent country. Just three days before the discussions, on the 4th of March, the Turkish government  confiscated ZAMAN newspaper and graveyarded democracy and free speech. That was a fist in the face of the EU!

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/03/turkey-what-next-after-seizure-of-newspaper.html#

I project that this deal brings nothing at all. EU will pay for nothing, Turkey will extent their autocracy without scruples and resentment will probably bring the whole deal to fall, as nobody wants 77 million Turcs to travel and settle everywhere in the EU.

And the EU has to pay the same amount once again to Greece for the situation will not improve. Turkey will not do everything to get the human traders down. They have shown they cannot be bent when the USA asked for border closure with Syria. Turkey simply said that it can’t be done.

This solution would also have been in accordance with international law for the ‘refoulement’ of people to a country that is not guaranteed to respect human rights violates international law and the refugee convention.

Merkel Sold Out Europe

I won’t quote articles here. You can find them, the Internet is full of it. I want to express my personal opinion for you see that in this blog I was pretty much taking Merkel’s position.

I am a liberal German and Merkel’s overall politics reminded me of the one of Helmut Schmidt who was my childhood hero—it was not Helmuth Kohl, Merkel’s mentor.

I love Merkel’s sense for realities, the fact she is a scientist, made her PhD in quantum chemistry and has a great heart when it goes to human hardships.

But the deal with Turkey is flawed in many respects, and I say this also in my quality of an international lawyer.

  1. Turkey has consistently violated human rights and does this even more now;
  2. Turkey doesn’t qualify for EU membership because of practicing torture;
  3. Turkey hasn’t deserved those 6 bn Euros, but Greece—and what does Greece get?
  4. How can the EU shift their responsibility to a shaky dictatorship like Turkey?
  5. If you don’t see what I am saying, please wait 3 to 6 months.

Angela Merkel has signed her own political downfall with that. Gloeckner and Petry are in the starting holes of their respective right-wing political parties.

Most of you know my analysis about how WW3 will come about but you know also that the process is much slower than predicted. It will come in the aftermath of Europe going fascist. Hollande with 16% survival chance will make place for Le Pen, and Merkel to one of these right-wing parties. In the United States the shift Obama-Clinton or Obama-Trump will make for a totally different political climate that will support the right-wing rush of Europe.

Putin will profit of all that in his own unique way, getting his deals, and with that, we can say bye-bye to human rights, free speech, democracy, and liberalism.

I have believed in Merkel but she betrayed us all with betting on the wrong horse, at a time when she had no more other options. It’s like all your options are gone because you did not catch them, and then there is one last chance, and you give all your hope to it. This is how Merkel approached Turkey, as if all depended now on Turkey to get Europe right again. What a political mistake, what a childish approach to realities! Turkey will show Europe what they can do, and it will be nothing positive, for sure, and will cost Angela her career.

In addition to these arguments, and independently of the EU’s motivation for this process of ‘refoulement,’ international law, and especially the status of refugees, prohibits such actions.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-l-phillips/refoulement-violates-inte_b_9423778.html

Negotiations EU-Turkey

The key elements of that draft statement, seen by Reuters are:

  • Turkey to readmit all “irregular”migrants crossing into Greek islands from Turkey;
  • For every Syrian readmitted by Turkey from the Greek islands, one Syrian refugee will be resettled from Turkey to the EU member states;
  • The EU will completely evacuate refugees from the Greek islands, readmitting only those who crossed into the islands after a date to be determined;
  • The EU will accelerate the lifting of visa requirements for Turkish citizens in the Schengen zone, so that this takes place, at the latest, by the end of June 2016;
  • The EU and Turkey will cooperate in any joint endeavours to establish humanitarian safe areas inside Syria;
  • The EU will provide Turkey with an extra 3bn Euros (on top of the 3bn Euros already made available) to help Turkey deal with Syrian refugees through to the end of 2018.

According to Reuters, the statement also makes reference to steps in the process of negotiating Turkish accession to the European Union.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/mar/07/migration-crisis-summit-eu-and-turkish-leaders-meet-in-brussels-live

The Making of Angela Merkel

The Making of Angela Merkel, with Andrew Marr, an excellent BBC documentary:

And on the funny side,  the Angel Merkel Show.

Absolutely well-done, how they mix up English with German words. Really fun. I am sure she will like that.

Globalism vs. Territorialism

A very good and analytic article that shows that the United States is going backwards, hindering progress through propaganda-driven fear patterns and nonsensical polemics, driving toward a politics of parochialism and sectarian opinions.

While Germany plays the real leader role driven by Angela Merkel’s politics of realism and globalism—and not overlook: fearlessness in the face of the current refugee crisis.

And the result will be that Germany’s importance in the political world will shift upward and the United States’ importance will shift downward—and that despite all of Donald Trump’s ridiculous and theatrical show business.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/mar/06/donald-trump-angela-merkel-territorial-global-ulrich-speck

See also this quite objective analysis of the ‘Trump Phenomenon’ by Al Jazeera: