CategoryPolitics

Populism in Germany

One doesn’t need to be of Einsteinian intelligence to connect the dots here. All those who still believe I was a negative thinker will think twice. The Alternative for Germany (AFD) has now gained 20% while only 5% are needed to enter the Bundestag as a political party. While these state elections are only signposts for the eventual federal elections, the three states that were involved are representative.

http://www.thelocal.de/20160313/merkel-gets-the-blame-as-germany-faces-up-to-rise-of-populists

This means that Merkel can’t continue her politics because the SPD is going to be so weak and unimportant that the only constructive solution would be a right-wing coalition CDU-AFD.

Then, connect the dots with Jihadists in Germany according to this well-researched article from the Gateson Institute:

http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7609/germany-islamic-state

This is an explosive mix, a recipe for civil war, for as I have predicted it since more than 20 years, it’s right-wing fascism, also called populism as an euphemism that will get us into WW3, and no other problem. The refugee crisis is only the catalyzer and therefore I believe that Merkel cannot be blamed for this landslide into fascism. First of all it’s not a Germany-only phenomenon. See only the scary rise of antisemitism in France and the right-wing dictatorial touch all over the Balkan states including Turkey.

Then consider the fact that in the United States, too, the general tone during the election campaign becomes more and more populist and one-sided, narrow-minded and provincial, and last not least see how weapon sales are rising virtually every month, fostered by growing fears of multiple threats and declining trust between nations linked by diplomatic ties.

Everyone who in this situation sees happy times ahead or business as usual must be struck with blindness or is an eternal Peter Pan. And to end this post with a positive note, Merkel’s sense of realities can still be very useful in Germany, especially now, for she might be able to use her power to dampen the right-wing zeal of the AFD once a coalition with the CDU is reached. I wish her all the best for this goal, while I still believe that she sold Europe out to Turkey in an unprecedented way and this will have negative repercussions for her career.

An Alternative Solution

I would have spent the money on Greece and make sure people don’t drown by using the Nato deployment but I would have let them come to Greece and spent the money there. After all, it’s spent then on a democratic country and a EU member, not an outsider. This deal was clearly favorable for Turkey with the prospect of passport-free travel from June 2016 and new discussions about EU membership. But they cannot be made a member according to EU law as long as they practice torture.

And when you see that they first wanted only 3 bn euros and when they raised the price tag to 6 bn, Merkel immediately agreed. Only politicians can do such a thing, a business man like Trump would never agree with such a bargain: and for good reasons. In my view Europe has lost face with this deal and this is first of all the doing of Merkel.

I have lost my own faith in her through this while I was truly admiring her before. But that was too much. Turkey is a country that can’t be trusted, only scan through their history, including the Armenian genocide. Turkey is and was a violent country. Just three days before the discussions, on the 4th of March, the Turkish government  confiscated ZAMAN newspaper and graveyarded democracy and free speech. That was a fist in the face of the EU!

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/03/turkey-what-next-after-seizure-of-newspaper.html#

I project that this deal brings nothing at all. EU will pay for nothing, Turkey will extent their autocracy without scruples and resentment will probably bring the whole deal to fall, as nobody wants 77 million Turcs to travel and settle everywhere in the EU.

And the EU has to pay the same amount once again to Greece for the situation will not improve. Turkey will not do everything to get the human traders down. They have shown they cannot be bent when the USA asked for border closure with Syria. Turkey simply said that it can’t be done.

This solution would also have been in accordance with international law for the ‘refoulement’ of people to a country that is not guaranteed to respect human rights violates international law and the refugee convention.

Merkel Sold Out Europe

I won’t quote articles here. You can find them, the Internet is full of it. I want to express my personal opinion for you see that in this blog I was pretty much taking Merkel’s position.

I am a liberal German and Merkel’s overall politics reminded me of the one of Helmut Schmidt who was my childhood hero—it was not Helmuth Kohl, Merkel’s mentor.

I love Merkel’s sense for realities, the fact she is a scientist, made her PhD in quantum chemistry and has a great heart when it goes to human hardships.

But the deal with Turkey is flawed in many respects, and I say this also in my quality of an international lawyer.

  1. Turkey has consistently violated human rights and does this even more now;
  2. Turkey doesn’t qualify for EU membership because of practicing torture;
  3. Turkey hasn’t deserved those 6 bn Euros, but Greece—and what does Greece get?
  4. How can the EU shift their responsibility to a shaky dictatorship like Turkey?
  5. If you don’t see what I am saying, please wait 3 to 6 months.

Angela Merkel has signed her own political downfall with that. Gloeckner and Petry are in the starting holes of their respective right-wing political parties.

Most of you know my analysis about how WW3 will come about but you know also that the process is much slower than predicted. It will come in the aftermath of Europe going fascist. Hollande with 16% survival chance will make place for Le Pen, and Merkel to one of these right-wing parties. In the United States the shift Obama-Clinton or Obama-Trump will make for a totally different political climate that will support the right-wing rush of Europe.

Putin will profit of all that in his own unique way, getting his deals, and with that, we can say bye-bye to human rights, free speech, democracy, and liberalism.

I have believed in Merkel but she betrayed us all with betting on the wrong horse, at a time when she had no more other options. It’s like all your options are gone because you did not catch them, and then there is one last chance, and you give all your hope to it. This is how Merkel approached Turkey, as if all depended now on Turkey to get Europe right again. What a political mistake, what a childish approach to realities! Turkey will show Europe what they can do, and it will be nothing positive, for sure, and will cost Angela her career.

In addition to these arguments, and independently of the EU’s motivation for this process of ‘refoulement,’ international law, and especially the status of refugees, prohibits such actions.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-l-phillips/refoulement-violates-inte_b_9423778.html

Globalism vs. Territorialism

A very good and analytic article that shows that the United States is going backwards, hindering progress through propaganda-driven fear patterns and nonsensical polemics, driving toward a politics of parochialism and sectarian opinions.

While Germany plays the real leader role driven by Angela Merkel’s politics of realism and globalism—and not overlook: fearlessness in the face of the current refugee crisis.

And the result will be that Germany’s importance in the political world will shift upward and the United States’ importance will shift downward—and that despite all of Donald Trump’s ridiculous and theatrical show business.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/mar/06/donald-trump-angela-merkel-territorial-global-ulrich-speck

See also this quite objective analysis of the ‘Trump Phenomenon’ by Al Jazeera:

The Leader Role of Germany in the Refugee Crisis

Austria simply snubs the humanitarian question, so do Hungary, Macedonia, Slovakia, etc. They only consider their own welfare and have largely xenophobic populations. Politically they were always right-wing fascist regimes. Remember that Hitler was not German, but Austrian. I have studied the question now quite intensely and I am more than ever before behind Merkel. She is the only politician who sees things realistically and puts the humanitarian question first. This will benefit Germany, and is already, according to some economic surveys. In this sense, Merkel acts in the best interest of Germany but also of the EU. It is right to receive the refugees and do any possible effort to accommodate them humanly. It will pay in the long run, the economies in the EU will greatly profit. And see the relationship that is so distorted in the media. In Germany 1 Mio refugees against 90 million population, that’s not even 1 percent, and in the EU totally speaking the relation is only 0.2 percent. So the media blow this up negatively while it doesn’t need to be seen negatively. Merkel’s idea of a quota system is just and fair and should be followed.

Germany has now threatened other EU countries that if they don’t follow there will be measures against them. This is appropriate. I would suggest economic sanctions but of course they can’t be forced into compliance. This is what this minister from Austria means: the EU can break apart over these conflicts. But to repeat it there are no real conflicts because as Merkel says, we can do it *together* but if they don’t follow, Germany must do it against their will and there will be even more conflict. But I am pro a strong stance of Germany in this question for the right is on the side of those who help, not those who let refugees behind fences and endless zillions of police ‘to keep their countries clean.’ This is fascist segregational politics Hitler style, and should belong to the past. These regimes are poor and for a reason, it’s exactly because of their retarded mindset that braces for security before bracing for progress. Germany must play a strong role here to show them the rules! I hope Merkel can fight it through, for weakness has no place in this situation. The Syrian people will thank Germany one day and those anti-refugee regimes will one day get back the karmic boomerang, for they will go economically bankrupt—as soon as they step out of the EU for they get way more than they give in this situation. This is my prediction. And Greece must be helped with all our EU power, Greece is admirable in what they do and realize and therefore Germany must help Greece even more.

And my last word: if the EU breaks over the refugee question, it was meant to be, for it shows what a façade the EU is in reality. Why do you think I never wanted to work for them while I have all the qualifications? I knew it from the 70s onwards that the EU is one big money-wasting machine. Let Germany be the leader of Europe, then we got to have it right! You will see. This is what the result will be. Our economy has profited a lot from the events, last year was Germany’s strongest ever year economically since WW2, huge profits and for the first time since 1961, the main trading partner of Germany is the United States, while before it was always France. This means something … it’s a signal that Germany has reached equality standard with the USA, and this will be reflected on the political scene in the future. The United States see Germany as the most important partner in NATO for good reasons. And it’s a setback for France that they have deserved with their anti-semitism and the mess they made in the refugee camp in Calais where they drive refugees out like animals upon a court order. It’s appalling, I have no more sympathies for France.

The Perilous Journey

As Angela Merkel was in Turkey to find together a Resolution for the United Nations on the Refugee Crisis, another refugee boat capsized and 35 people drowned. It was the trigger of an idea that I find great. Angel Merkel proposed to directly take refugees from crisis-ridden regions in the Middle East such as Syria, so that they do not need to get into the hands of shady individuals and smugglers who take them on boats that are not safe.

If we feel responsible at all in this crisis, we cannot tolerate that more and more people die. Already a quarter of a million died in the Syria war and there are 3.4 million refugees now and millions more displayed and moving within Syria.

Whatever right-wing political forces say and do, we cannot put our hands in the lap in such an urgent situation and refuse to bring relief to all these people on the way to finding a better life and a safe place to live. It is high time that politics overcomes politics for this to happen.

The most ridiculous façade in all of this is shown by what’s going on the United States. They do virtually nothing to accept refugees, it’s simply scandalous, if it was not all totally ridiculous, showing that Americans give a shit about people who are suffering and in need for humanitarian aid. Big blah blah in the media about ‘we need a new Marshal plan’ but this is simply Utopia for the US will simply not do that, while they have accumulated the createst responsibility for this crisis with their absolutely idiotic Middle East policy.