TagAngela Merkel

Populism in Germany

One doesn’t need to be of Einsteinian intelligence to connect the dots here. All those who still believe I was a negative thinker will think twice. The Alternative for Germany (AFD) has now gained 20% while only 5% are needed to enter the Bundestag as a political party. While these state elections are only signposts for the eventual federal elections, the three states that were involved are representative.

http://www.thelocal.de/20160313/merkel-gets-the-blame-as-germany-faces-up-to-rise-of-populists

This means that Merkel can’t continue her politics because the SPD is going to be so weak and unimportant that the only constructive solution would be a right-wing coalition CDU-AFD.

Then, connect the dots with Jihadists in Germany according to this well-researched article from the Gateson Institute:

http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7609/germany-islamic-state

This is an explosive mix, a recipe for civil war, for as I have predicted it since more than 20 years, it’s right-wing fascism, also called populism as an euphemism that will get us into WW3, and no other problem. The refugee crisis is only the catalyzer and therefore I believe that Merkel cannot be blamed for this landslide into fascism. First of all it’s not a Germany-only phenomenon. See only the scary rise of antisemitism in France and the right-wing dictatorial touch all over the Balkan states including Turkey.

Then consider the fact that in the United States, too, the general tone during the election campaign becomes more and more populist and one-sided, narrow-minded and provincial, and last not least see how weapon sales are rising virtually every month, fostered by growing fears of multiple threats and declining trust between nations linked by diplomatic ties.

Everyone who in this situation sees happy times ahead or business as usual must be struck with blindness or is an eternal Peter Pan. And to end this post with a positive note, Merkel’s sense of realities can still be very useful in Germany, especially now, for she might be able to use her power to dampen the right-wing zeal of the AFD once a coalition with the CDU is reached. I wish her all the best for this goal, while I still believe that she sold Europe out to Turkey in an unprecedented way and this will have negative repercussions for her career.

An Alternative Solution

I would have spent the money on Greece and make sure people don’t drown by using the Nato deployment but I would have let them come to Greece and spent the money there. After all, it’s spent then on a democratic country and a EU member, not an outsider. This deal was clearly favorable for Turkey with the prospect of passport-free travel from June 2016 and new discussions about EU membership. But they cannot be made a member according to EU law as long as they practice torture.

And when you see that they first wanted only 3 bn euros and when they raised the price tag to 6 bn, Merkel immediately agreed. Only politicians can do such a thing, a business man like Trump would never agree with such a bargain: and for good reasons. In my view Europe has lost face with this deal and this is first of all the doing of Merkel.

I have lost my own faith in her through this while I was truly admiring her before. But that was too much. Turkey is a country that can’t be trusted, only scan through their history, including the Armenian genocide. Turkey is and was a violent country. Just three days before the discussions, on the 4th of March, the Turkish government  confiscated ZAMAN newspaper and graveyarded democracy and free speech. That was a fist in the face of the EU!

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/03/turkey-what-next-after-seizure-of-newspaper.html#

I project that this deal brings nothing at all. EU will pay for nothing, Turkey will extent their autocracy without scruples and resentment will probably bring the whole deal to fall, as nobody wants 77 million Turcs to travel and settle everywhere in the EU.

And the EU has to pay the same amount once again to Greece for the situation will not improve. Turkey will not do everything to get the human traders down. They have shown they cannot be bent when the USA asked for border closure with Syria. Turkey simply said that it can’t be done.

This solution would also have been in accordance with international law for the ‘refoulement’ of people to a country that is not guaranteed to respect human rights violates international law and the refugee convention.

Merkel Sold Out Europe

I won’t quote articles here. You can find them, the Internet is full of it. I want to express my personal opinion for you see that in this blog I was pretty much taking Merkel’s position.

I am a liberal German and Merkel’s overall politics reminded me of the one of Helmut Schmidt who was my childhood hero—it was not Helmuth Kohl, Merkel’s mentor.

I love Merkel’s sense for realities, the fact she is a scientist, made her PhD in quantum chemistry and has a great heart when it goes to human hardships.

But the deal with Turkey is flawed in many respects, and I say this also in my quality of an international lawyer.

  1. Turkey has consistently violated human rights and does this even more now;
  2. Turkey doesn’t qualify for EU membership because of practicing torture;
  3. Turkey hasn’t deserved those 6 bn Euros, but Greece—and what does Greece get?
  4. How can the EU shift their responsibility to a shaky dictatorship like Turkey?
  5. If you don’t see what I am saying, please wait 3 to 6 months.

Angela Merkel has signed her own political downfall with that. Gloeckner and Petry are in the starting holes of their respective right-wing political parties.

Most of you know my analysis about how WW3 will come about but you know also that the process is much slower than predicted. It will come in the aftermath of Europe going fascist. Hollande with 16% survival chance will make place for Le Pen, and Merkel to one of these right-wing parties. In the United States the shift Obama-Clinton or Obama-Trump will make for a totally different political climate that will support the right-wing rush of Europe.

Putin will profit of all that in his own unique way, getting his deals, and with that, we can say bye-bye to human rights, free speech, democracy, and liberalism.

I have believed in Merkel but she betrayed us all with betting on the wrong horse, at a time when she had no more other options. It’s like all your options are gone because you did not catch them, and then there is one last chance, and you give all your hope to it. This is how Merkel approached Turkey, as if all depended now on Turkey to get Europe right again. What a political mistake, what a childish approach to realities! Turkey will show Europe what they can do, and it will be nothing positive, for sure, and will cost Angela her career.

In addition to these arguments, and independently of the EU’s motivation for this process of ‘refoulement,’ international law, and especially the status of refugees, prohibits such actions.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-l-phillips/refoulement-violates-inte_b_9423778.html

The Making of Angela Merkel

The Making of Angela Merkel, with Andrew Marr, an excellent BBC documentary:

And on the funny side,  the Angel Merkel Show.

Absolutely well-done, how they mix up English with German words. Really fun. I am sure she will like that.